Sunday, October 24, 2004

Professional Prognosticators

I decided to go through and analyze the success that various football predictors have had this season. I picked representatives from Sports Illustrated and HBO's "Inside the NFL" for this posting. I might look at ESPN's picks in another one.

Dan Marino (HBO)- 63 %

Paul Zimmerman (Sports Illustrated)- 60 %. Related note... he only picks about 9 games a week.

Cris Carter (HBO)- 58 %

Cris Collinsworth (HBO)- 58 %

Bob Costas (HBO)- 49 %

The point of this exercise was to show that most experts can't get much over 60 % for the season. I don't think it really demonstrates how smart you are. I wouldn't say that I'm smarter than Bob Costas. A lot of it comes down to luck.

I've said before that my goal is to get between 55-60 % right per week. In a 14 game week, that would require me getting about 8 picks correct a week, on average.


Blogger Eric Cioffoletti said...

I'm at about 70% or so for this season so far. Don't worry--it won't last.

What this prooves is that "picking" teams to win is kinda silly. It is luck. But what I do like about it is that it motivates you to pay attention to what all of the teams are doing. It gives you a reason to keep track of them which is something I've had difficulty doing in the past. I would just follow the Dolphins and that would be it.

October 24, 2004 at 8:37 PM  
Blogger tsias said...

You've gotten around 65 %. That's some good work.

The only bad thing is that with such a high number, it's more difficult to build. Most likely, even a decent week will bring the average down.

Overall, it's not a big deal. I just like studying Statistics sometimes. Gives me something to do when I'm bored.

October 24, 2004 at 8:59 PM  

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