Sunday, October 24, 2004

Final Presidential Election Prediction

Nine days before Election Day 2004, the time has come for me to place a firm prediction on the Presidential race. I have wrestled with this decision for quite some time. During the primaries and up until the DNC, I felt fairly good about Kerry’s chances for victory. Following the Swift Boat attacks and the RNC, I was despondent about Kerry’s fate. The debates came and I was energized but quickly depressed at the lack of overall movement for Kerry. Now, a week before the election, I’m torn on who wins this election. I’ve looked at the national and state polls, which show a relatively close election. I’ll continue to evaluate these trends over the course of these next nine days. But I am ready to place my bets and predict the winner of the 2004 Presidential election.

I believe that sometime late on November 2 or early November 3, the media will project a winner. It may come later than usual, perhaps after the polls close at 11:00 ET in California. Whether or not the networks officially call it, we should have a good idea before that time. Most of the competitive states are in the East and Midwest. We can watch Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio in order to get a feel as to who is in control.

I feel that one campaign is focused on these national numbers, while the other is set on garnering 270 electoral votes. The slight national lead for Bush is based on expanding support in already decided states. Kerry has been doing much better in the so-called battleground states, where the election will be decided.

Bush has done a good job of motivating his Evangelical Christian support. However, in the states where the election will be contested, these numbers aren’t as significant. Rove believes that four million additional Evangelicals will vote for Bush this time. I doubt the number will be that high. However, he will get some increased support. But it’s not going to materialize in the states where he needs it most.

When the polls finally close, George W. Bush will likely retain a slight edge in the popular vote. I expect Bush to win the popular vote by less than one-percent. I can foresee Kerry winning by a similar margin as well. But my bet is on a Bush popular vote triumph.

Those popular vote totals may not be enough to carry George W. Bush to a second term. Buoyed by massive grassroots efforts, Sen. Kerry will narrowly win the states of Ohio and Florida. Bush will manage to hold onto Colorado and Nevada, despite gains by Kerry. Bush might even carry the formerly blue state of New Mexico. Kerry will clean up in the Midwest, coming from behind and carrying Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota. Kerry will make a clean sweet of the big three states—Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio.

My Final Prediction, made on October 24, 2004, is as follows:

Popular vote (rounded)- "President" George W. Bush 50 %, Senator John F. Kerry 49 %

Electoral vote (approximate)- Sen. Kerry with 300 + electoral votes

Presidential Election 2004 Victor: Senator John Forbes Kerry of Massachusetts


Blogger Eric Cioffoletti said...

Good prediction. Sadly, I think you might be wrong. Or you could be right. Frankly, I don't know anymore.

I will tell you this though. If Bush wins this thing in 2004, I will NEVER have a positive view of politics again.

October 26, 2004 at 1:20 AM  

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