Friday, September 17, 2004

New poll numbers

The race for President is less than two months from its conclusion. A number of new national polls were relased today. Frankly, I don't know what to make of them. The first few I saw had the race a dead heat. Then I see this gallup poll placing Bush way ahead in both likely and registered voters. Here's a sample of the newest national polls.

Gallup: Bush 55, Kerry 42 (Likely voters), Bush 52, Kerry 44 (Registered voters), Bush job approval 52 %

Harris: Kerry 48, Bush 47 (Likely)

Pew: Bush 47, Kerry 46 (Likely), 46-46 (Registered) Interesting side note: When asked "Who do you think will win?", 61 % say Bush to only 23 for Kerry

American Research Group (ARG): Kerry 46, Bush 45, Bush approval 45

Investor's Business Daily (IBD), released Monday: 47-47 in a 2-man race, 46-46-3 when Nader's included

My take on these #'s. Every poll except for Gallup has the race almost even, with Bush's post-RNC bounce evaporating. Earlier polls by Time and Newsweek do have Bush leading outside the margin of error.

The rest of these numbers are good news for Kerry, especially the 45 % approval rating in the ARG poll. Kerry's going to have two more chances to show he's the "strong closer". The first debate will be on September 30 in Coral Gables. All indications are that Bush will skip out of the 2nd debate, a town hall meeting scheduled for St. Louis, Missouri. The Bush camp is steadfast on doing only two debates, short of the three recommended by the Presidential Debate Commission.

Kerry's biggest challenge is to close the likability gap. I truly believe that if Kerry can appear even remotely endearing to the public, then he'll pull enough undecideds to carry him to victory. At the moment, I'm not entirely sure if he can do this.


Post a Comment

<< Home